Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
