Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the near lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Jason Reynolds
Jason Reynolds

A tech enthusiast and writer passionate about innovation and self-improvement, sharing experiences and knowledge.

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